06/09/08

          The odds game is one everyone has to play and is what makes the breeding of the morphs so challenging, rewarding, and some times disappointing!

     When you get great odds on a clutch or a litter, it is so much fun and amazingly rewarding! When you get bad odds, you have to be realistic and not take it personally! You just have to take the bad with the good, and get back in there and try again! Trust me I know what it is like to wait years to produce the snake you want-spending a lot of money for a pair of gene carriers-or the actual animal itself in the case of a codominant or dominant!  

     All in all I am amazed at the remarkable success that we and other people have had in producing numbers of morphs and combinations of morphs.When you think about the short 15 years it has been since the first morphs were even produced, we have had to have had amazing results with all of the combinations we have now!

     Below is a great discussion about missing on the odds and the frustration it can bring, but also the realization that you are not “owed” these odds just because of a genetic model!  

     Getting bad odds does not mean you should play the blame game and go after the person that sold you the animals! BUT…….you do need to do as much as you can to make sure that 1) the animals you have purchased are what you think they are and 2) minimize the risk that they are not.The best way in my opinion is to know the person you are dealing with, or make sure that the person has a proven track record of selling hets, and their customers have had results. If you don’t know the seller then I think it is perfectly reasonable to ask him/her for a list of customers that have produced animals from gene carriers that they have purchased from them. They should be able to come up with at least 1-2 individuals that could share their success stories.

     In my opinion, statistically, based on increasing data points and results, it would be very hard to establish in a court of law, beyond a reasonable doubt that animals are or are not gene carriers of recessive mutations. 

     Until a scientific test could prove or disprove the genotype of a particular snake, the best way to cover your bases is to do research on the seller, and be realistic about the odds you might or might not hit. By and large, there is no question that amazing results and predictable results can and have happened in significant numbers. It is good to put the misses and low odds up for people to see, so they are realistic in their expectations!

     Here are some not so good results in a thread posted on KS and my responses to the data presented.  Tomorrow I will put the other end of the spectrum, amazing results!

     Thanks to Thomas Sierra who started this thread, Mike Bell, Mike Jenks, and Mark Thomson, for contributing the data sets for comment. I feel confident all of these guys will come back with great odds stories in the future! Tracy

                        Update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Posted by: latin1956 at Thu Jun 5 21:30:45 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]I went ahead and cut a small flap on all 9 eggs and lo and behold no Albinos!!!!

Now I am new to the Ball Python scene and what are the chances of breeding a supposely 100% Het Albino to a Albino Male and get no Albinos. Should I try again next year? or did I just missed the odds!?

Well at least now I have 100% het Albinos for sure!!!!!
-----
Thomas Sierra

   Exact same here last year

 

Posted by: mikebell at Fri Jun 6 07:52:02 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]Last year I got nine eggs from a 100% het female bred to an albino male. I produced this female, I also produced her mother. The mother is a proven het, and she was never bred to anything other than an albino male. So there was no chance of retained sperm. Her sisters also proved last year. On the same day last year I had six eggs laid from a proven het female. I cut all eggs on the same day, imagine how I felt when I got no albinos from fifteen eggs. We'll see what happens this year.
Mike

   RE: Ouch

 

Posted by: Tracy Barker at Fri Jun 6 05:32:04 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]First let me say I think you have a great attitude and that is very nice to see-you have been very realistic, and of course no one wants to have a result that wasn't what he/she expected after all the hard and good work you did.

I am not saying if the female is a het or is not a het, but I do think it is important to realize despite the bad odds-at this point, it really is not realistic on the basis of at least this one result to determine that she is ruled out as a het.

There have been numerous examples of codoms and dominants bred to normals with this clutch size that have resulted in normals. There have been numerous examples of homozygous to het animals that have resulted in normals.

This IS NOT a big enough sample size to determine if she is or if she isn't.

Case in point. If you have been reading the Boa forum, you would see there have been several examples of litters from PROVEN albino animals to PROVEN hets, where there are litters of close to 30 babies with 1 or 2 or NO ALBINOS produced! Now those are sample sizes that you are seeing right before your eyes-and it shows you that these ball python numbers, even as large as 9 eggs or up to 15 eggs are not enough to show anything in a single clutch.

I would repeat the breeding and see if you have better luck next time and hopefully time will tell if she is or is not a 100% het.

I think your view of the fact that you have 9 new 100% hets is the best view and that is a great result, despite the either bad odds or the fact she might not be a het.

Tracy/VPI

 boas but 0 out of 38

 

Posted by: ltownmorphs at Fri Jun 6 12:35:10 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]I have a proven dbl het boa. I know shes a dble het because she produced albinos and snows for me before. Well this year i bread a albino het snow male to her. i got 25 hets and 13 anerys. no albinos or snows. The odds are sometimes against you. better luck next year.

mark thompson

  RE: boas but 0 out of 38

 

Posted by: Tracy Barker at Fri Jun 6 14:15:20 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]Thanks Mark-for putting that out there-I think people look at it as if these things "owe" you-not so! Though statistics say it is crazy that you didn't get an albino-it happened! It has to be part of the data set-you can't take out what you don't like!
This is a very important data point-it doesn't need any excuse, it is what it is, and that is what science is all about.
These data points are very important and I'm happy that you guys came on here and put them out for people to see. Tracy/VPI

 13 eggs 1 albino

 

Posted by: mikeslrsrpnts at Sat Jun 7 12:33:31 2008  [ Report Abuse ] [ Email Message ]It is completely possible to have bad odds. it shouldn't always be based off of 1 in a kabillion, I should have got this or that becuase mathmatics say so. I bred my male albino to a het female got 7 eggs no albinos, the following year same pair 6 eggs 1 albino! what if that 1 egg happen to slug out or die along the way, i'd be on my third year of trying for an albino with her, that would be completely ridiculous to some to keep trying to prove her out. So by what the odds say I should get 7 for 7 from her this year YEAH!!! haha good luck with her!
-----
Mike Jenks-Solar Serpents llc