07/14/15 IMPOSSIBLE ODDS

My point today isn't actually about snakes.

Its about believing in something that is going on in your life that may appear to be a longshot; impossible odds.

Now the odds thing is interesting. You might not realize it, but I do odds every day. So I know a bit about them.

Every snake breeding I do is all about odds and long shots. Sometimes it is about just reproducing the species itself, which in some circumstances can be extremely difficult and take years to raise and figure out its reproductive cycle. Sometimes it is about producing a particular morph. These projects can involve up to a decade (that's 10 years!) of work.

Let me give you 2 examples on a morph project (after two generations just making the snakes to actually start the project!) in the last month where I got ridiculous odds. Meaning impossible long shots that happened.

1) when you breed an albino x het albino the odds are 1/2 are albinos and 1/2 are normal. So what that means is each egg has a shot at being albino or normal  like flipping a coin heads or tails. It's amazing how close these snake genetics come to the odds.

A few weeks ago I had 11 eggs hatch. So you would expect 5 or 6 either being albino or normal roughly 50/50.

 

Photo by: Dave and Tracy Barker VPI 2015; Orange TNeg Albino  Python brongersmai and 100% het hatching

 

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Look at the pic, here is what I got!

11 eggs: 8 albinos 3 normals! (one albino is removed and was soaking)

Photo by: Dave and Tracy Barker VPI 2015 Newly hatched Orange TNeg  and 100% hets Python brongersmai

 

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OK now that is nothing compared to what happened with my boas.
I got impossible odds. Literally impossible long shot. Meaning you would never believe it could happen, you would have to see it. But when you see it, you can believe it could happen.

Now this example is way more complicated because it involves 3 genes. Two are only carriers you can't even see the colors you just know the snake carries the genes. The third you can see in one of the parents.

When bred together you are trying to get snakes that show both genes or all 3. It's crazy odds. To get one that show both its 1/16 and all 3 it is 1/32!!

That means you need on average 16 babies to get ONE that has both colors and 32 babies to get ONE that has all 3 colors!

So my snake had 22 babies.

There were 3 of the 1/32 combos (should be 0)
There were 2 of the 1/16 combos (should be 1)
There were 11 of the 1/4 combos (should be 5)

So to put that in perspective I should have had 5 females have a total of 96 babies to see what I got with 1 female having 22 babies getting 3 of the 3 gene snakes!

So long shots can and do happen. I just outlined with actual statistics, they do come in, that you can believe in.

Photo by: Dave and Tracy Barker VPI 2015; New born VPI Caramel Albino Snow litter Boa constrictor

 

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